{"id":3257,"date":"2022-08-30T17:08:49","date_gmt":"2022-08-30T10:08:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/?p=3257"},"modified":"2022-09-28T13:05:47","modified_gmt":"2022-09-28T06:05:47","slug":"chi-so-chung-khoan-giam-lien-tuc-vay-thi-truong-co-sap-khong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/chi-so-chung-khoan-giam-lien-tuc-vay-thi-truong-co-sap-khong\/","title":{"rendered":"Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n gi\u1ea3m li\u00ean t\u1ee5c v\u1eady th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 s\u1eadp kh\u00f4ng?"},"content":{"rendered":"
“CH\u1ec8 S\u1ed0 CH\u1ee8NG KHO\u00c1N GI\u1ea2M LI\u00caN T\u1ee4C, V\u1eacY TH\u1eca TR\u01af\u1edcNG C\u00d3 S\u1eacP KH\u00d4NG?”<\/strong><\/h6>\n

T\u00f4i c\u00f3 n\u00f3i r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Index), gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn kh\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1eddng, r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y l\u00e0 trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, c\u00f3 r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00e2m l\u00fd v\u00e0 h\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, v\u00e0 v\u00ec th\u1ebf \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u1ebfn cung c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng l\u00e0 gi\u00e1. Trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, c\u00f3 khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u00eam \u1ea3 theo g\u1ea7n s\u00e1t gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p, nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u1ea3y lambada, gi\u00e1 t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

Ch\u00fang ta h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c, sau khi l\u00ean \u0111\u1ec9nh ng\u00e0y 4\/4\/2022, v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 1524.7, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 \u201cb\u1ea5t ng\u1edd\u201d b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi tin x\u1ea5u th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, v\u00e0 tin ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c v\u1ec1 l\u0169ng \u0111o\u1ea1n ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n, tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 chu\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y gi\u1ea3m \u201cth\u00ea th\u1ea3m\u201d.<\/p>\n

S\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n s\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y t\u0103ng gi\u00e1, v\u00e0 % gi\u1ea3m th\u00ec l\u1edbn h\u01a1n % t\u0103ng, c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng ng\u00e0y gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c -4.95%, -4.49%.
\nT\u1eeb 1524.7 ng\u00e0y 4\/4\/2022, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ebfn 1301.53 ng\u00e0y 11\/5\/2022, t\u1ed5ng c\u1ed9ng gi\u1ea3m 14.64%.<\/p>\n

Nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi lo r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd s\u1ee5p, t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 c\u1ee9 gi\u1ea3m ho\u00e0i \u0111\u1ebfn v\u00e0i tr\u0103m \u0111i\u1ec3m.T\u00f4i th\u00ec kh\u00f4ng ngh\u0129 v\u1eady. Theo t\u00f4i, trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Index), gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 xu\u1ed1ng n\u1eefa, v\u00e0 c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00ean. Nh\u01b0ng t\u00f4i ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn r\u1eafng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu t\u1ed1t s\u1ebd t\u0103ng trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

Ch\u00fang ta h\u00e3y nh\u00ecn h\u00ecnh 1 (tr\u00e1i) ng\u00e0y 28\/07\/2000 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 l\u00e0 100, th\u00ec sau 5,279 phi\u00ean giao d\u1ecbch, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea1t 1,301.53 v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 11\/5\/2022. T\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh = 0.05%\/ ng\u00e0y l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c,
\n100*(1+0.05%)^5279 = 1,301.53
\nTSLN n\u0103m t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng = 12.92% \/ n\u0103m.<\/p>\n

Theo t\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i, d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u1ef1 do c\u1ee7a t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 doanh nghi\u1ec7p tr\u00ean s\u00e0n HOSE, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ee9c 13.2% – 13.5%. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00fang t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn. Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111ang t\u0103ng th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n v\u00e0i \u0111i\u1ec3m so v\u1edbi Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u00f3 l\u1ebd do t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong m\u1ea5y tu\u1ea7n qua.<\/p>\n

B\u00e2y gi\u1edd ch\u00fang ta h\u00e3y nh\u00ecn h\u00ecnh 2 (ph\u1ea3i) L\u1ea5y t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 VnIndex trong 5,279 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch, v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0a l\u00ean \u0111\u1ed3 th\u1ecb d\u1ea1ng Histogram, ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed3 th\u1ecb r\u1ea5t g\u1ea7n v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i chu\u1ea9n trong x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea.<\/p>\n

T\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh s\u1ed1 h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a chu\u1ed7i s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y l\u00e0 0.06%\/ng\u00e0y, v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n ng\u00e0y l\u00e0 1.47%.
\nTheo l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft th\u00ec s\u1ebd c\u00f3 34.1% s\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y c\u00f3 t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u1eeb -1.41% \u0111\u1ebfn 0.06%. S\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf di\u1ec5n ra l\u00e0 2035, t\u1ee9c 38.55%
\nTheo l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft th\u00ec s\u1ebd c\u00f3 34.1% s\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y c\u00f3 t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u1eeb 0.06% \u0111\u1ebfn 1.53%. S\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf di\u1ec5n ra l\u00e0 2016, t\u1ee9c 38.19%.
\n\u1ede c\u00e1c v\u00f9ng kh\u00e1c, c\u0169ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch so v\u1edbi l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch n\u00e0y l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. (H\u00ecnh 2)<\/p>\n

N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ef1 tin k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a Vnindex l\u00e0 0.06%\/ng\u00e0y. TTSLN c\u1ee7a t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c ng\u00e0y s\u1ebd ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng v\u1edbi 0.06%.
\nNh\u1eefng s\u1ed1 g\u1ea7n v\u1edbi 0.06%, v\u00ed d\u1ee5 0.05%, 0.06%, 0,06%, 0.07%, 0.08% s\u1ebd nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n. C\u00f2n nh\u1eefng s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t l\u1edbn so v\u1edbi 0.06% s\u1ebd \u00edt h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

N\u1ebfu ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 VnIndex trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n 10 ng\u00e0y, 50 ng\u00e0y, 80 ng\u00e0y, th\u00ec TSLN c\u1ee7a VnIndex c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed1 b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3.
\nNh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n<\/a>, c\u00f3 s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 1000, 1500, 2000 ng\u00e0y th\u00ec ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ef1 tin r\u1eb1ng, s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang c\u0169ng s\u1ebd t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 h\u00ecnh 2. V\u00e0 v\u00ec th\u1ebf TSLN trung b\u00ecnh m\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c khi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u00e0o ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 VnIndex c\u0169ng s\u1ebd r\u1ea5t g\u1ea7n v\u1edbi 0.06%\/ng\u00e0y. (Tr\u1eeb phi c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t thay \u0111\u1ed5i r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn, r\u1ea5t to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 doanh nghi\u1ec7p tr\u00ean s\u00e0n\/ th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng).<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao, d\u00f9 nh\u1ea3y lambada, up v\u00e0 down li\u00ean t\u1ee5c trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, m\u1ed7i ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 m\u1ed7i c\u1ed1 phi\u1ebfu s\u1ebd h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u1ec1 t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang.
\nHy v\u1ecdng b\u00e0i n\u00e0y gi\u00fap th\u00eam 1 g\u00f3c nh\u00ecn cho c\u00e1c b\u1ea1n h\u1ecdc vi\u00ean c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i, cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.<\/p>\n

\n

Link b\u00e0i tr\u00ean Facebook Chuy\u00ean gia t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, T\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 L\u00e2m Minh Ch\u00e1nh: https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LamMinhChanh\/posts\/5114818865272230<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“CH\u1ec8 S\u1ed0 CH\u1ee8NG KHO\u00c1N GI\u1ea2M LI\u00caN T\u1ee4C, V\u1eacY TH\u1eca TR\u01af\u1edcNG C\u00d3 S\u1eacP KH\u00d4NG?” T\u00f4i c\u00f3 n\u00f3i r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Index), gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn kh\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1eddng, r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y l\u00e0 trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, c\u00f3 r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3258,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_kad_blocks_custom_css":"","_kad_blocks_head_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_body_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_footer_custom_js":"","_kad_post_transparent":"default","_kad_post_title":"default","_kad_post_layout":"default","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"default","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"default","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3257","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dau-tu-chung-khoan-dai-han"],"featured_image_src_large":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/chung-khoan-giam-thi-truong-sap.jpg?fit=1024%2C536&ssl=1",1024,536,true],"author_info":{"display_name":"Hi\u1ec1n Nguy\u1ec5n","author_link":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/author\/hn\/"},"comment_info":1,"category_info":[{"term_id":3,"name":"\u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n","slug":"dau-tu-chung-khoan-dai-han","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":3,"taxonomy":"category","description":"

Chuy\u00ean trang g\u1ed3m nh\u1eefng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch, nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a chuy\u00ean gia T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 L\u00e2m Minh Ch\u00e1nh v\u1ec1 Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n<\/p>","parent":0,"count":10,"filter":"raw","cat_ID":3,"category_count":10,"category_description":"

Chuy\u00ean trang g\u1ed3m nh\u1eefng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch, nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a chuy\u00ean gia T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 L\u00e2m Minh Ch\u00e1nh v\u1ec1 Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n<\/p>","cat_name":"\u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n","category_nicename":"dau-tu-chung-khoan-dai-han","category_parent":0}],"tag_info":false,"taxonomy_info":{"category":[{"value":3,"label":"\u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n"}]},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/chung-khoan-giam-thi-truong-sap.jpg?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3257","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3257"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3257\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3777,"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3257\/revisions\/3777"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3258"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3257"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3257"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3257"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}