{"id":3754,"date":"2022-09-23T15:53:36","date_gmt":"2022-09-23T08:53:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/?p=3754"},"modified":"2022-09-26T17:41:57","modified_gmt":"2022-09-26T10:41:57","slug":"cagr-toc-do-tang-truong-binh-quan-kep-ty-suat-loi-nhuan-binh-quan-tai-chinh-geometric-mean","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/cagr-toc-do-tang-truong-binh-quan-kep-ty-suat-loi-nhuan-binh-quan-tai-chinh-geometric-mean\/","title":{"rendered":"CAGR – T\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n k\u00e9p, Geometric Mean – T\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh"},"content":{"rendered":"

T\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n k\u00e9p (CAGR), T\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh (Geometric Mean) l\u00e0 c\u00e1c kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng trong kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 c\u1ea3 trong \u0111\u1eddi th\u01b0\u1eddng.
\n(H\u00ecnh minh h\u1ecda m\u00e0u v\u00e0ng b\u00ean ph\u1ea3i).<\/p>\n

Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed ta c\u00f3 1 doanh nghi\u1ec7p, l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn n\u0103m 2015 l\u00e0 100 t\u1ef7.
\n– N\u0103m 2016, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 10%, l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn 2016 = 100*(1+10%) = 110.
\n– N\u0103m 2017, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 15%, l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn 2017 = 110*(1+15%) = 126.5
\n– N\u0103m 2018, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 16%, l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn 2018 = 126.5*(1+16%) = 146.74
\n– N\u0103m 2019, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 19%, l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn 2019 = 146.74*(1+19%) = 174.62
\n– N\u0103m 2020, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng -20%, l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn 2020 = 174.62*(1-20%) = 139.74
\n– N\u0103m 2021, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng -15%, l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn 2021= 139.74*(1-15%) = 118.74
\n– N\u0103m 2022, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 25%, l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn 2022 = 118.74*(1+20%) = 148.3<\/p>\n

Khi h\u1ecfi v\u1ec1 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u00ednh s\u1ed1 trung b\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng.
\nTrong b\u00e0i n\u00e0y s\u1ed1 trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh b\u1eb1ng = 7.14%\/n\u0103m.
\nTuy v\u1eady s\u1ed1 trung b\u00ecnh n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a l\u1eafm.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c b\u1ea1n nh\u00ecn h\u00ecnh m\u00e0u xanh \u1edf gi\u1eefa. Khi ch\u00fang ta cho t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 100 t\u1ef7, v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 trung b\u00ecnh 7.14% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m, th\u00ec v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2022, l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd l\u00e0 162.08 t\u1ef7, kh\u00e1c xa v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 th\u1eadt l\u00e0 148.43.<\/p>\n

Trong kinh t\u1ebf, t\u00e0i t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta d\u00f9ng con s\u1ed1 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng h\u00e0ng n\u0103m k\u00e9p. Ti\u1ebfng Anh l\u00e0 Compounded Annual Growth Rate, CARG.
\nS\u1ed1 b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh nh\u01b0 sau = ((S\u1ed1 cu\u1ed1i \/ s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea7u)^(1\/s\u1ed1 k\u1ef3))-1 = ((148.43\/100)^(1\/7))-1 = 5.80%<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c b\u1ea1n nh\u00ecn h\u00ecnh m\u00e0u h\u1ed3ng b\u00ean ph\u1ea3i. Khi ch\u00fang ta cho t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 100 t\u1ef7, v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n 5.80% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m, th\u00ec v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2022, l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd l\u00e0 148.43 t\u1ef7. \u0110\u00fang b\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 th\u1eadt.<\/p>\n

Ta g\u1ecdi 5.8% n\u00e0y l\u00e0 T\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n k\u00e9p h\u00e0ng n\u0103m. Ti\u1ebfng Anh l\u00e0 Compounded Annual Growth Rate, CAGR.<\/h6>\n

B\u00e0i to\u00e1n tr\u00ean, t\u00f4i \u0111\u1ed5i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn doanh nghi\u1ec7p th\u00e0nh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n, v\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1eb1ng t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn h\u00e0ng n\u0103m, th\u00ec ch\u00fang ta c\u0169ng t\u00ednh ra k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1.<\/p>\n

** Trong t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta g\u1ecdi
\n– S\u1ed1 7.14%\/n\u0103m l\u00e0 T\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn Trung b\u00ecnh s\u1ed1 h\u1ecdc (Arithmetic Mean)
\n– S\u1ed1 5.8%\/ n\u0103m l\u00e0 T\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn B\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh (Geometric Mean).<\/p>\n

Ghi ch\u00fa quan tr\u1ecdng:<\/strong>
\nNh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch r\u00f5 b\u00ean tr\u00ean, khi t\u00ednh T\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh (Geometric Mean), ch\u00fang ta xem nh\u01b0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u1ec1u h\u00e0ng n\u0103m. T\u1ee9c l\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta ch\u1ec9 quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111i\u1ec3m b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u (100) v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m k\u1ebft th\u00fac (148.3), v\u00e0 s\u1ed1 k\u1ef3 (7). D\u00f9ng c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c ((S\u1ed1 cu\u1ed1i \/ s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea7u)^(1\/s\u1ed1 k\u1ef3))-1 ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng t\u00ednh ra s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

C\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1, m\u00e0 ch\u1eafc l\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u b\u1ea1n tr\u1ebb, kh\u00f4ng bi\u1ebft v\u1ec1 s\u1ed1 b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n n\u00e0y. Trong m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft v\u1ec1 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, khi t\u00f4i gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed T\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn b\u1eb1ng 15%\/n\u0103m hay l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t 4%\/n\u0103m, \u0111\u1ec3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng m\u1ed9t b\u00e0i to\u00e1n n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3. C\u00f3 kh\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u b\u1ea1n tr\u1ebb n\u00e0o nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t \u201cSao m\u00e0 s\u1ed1 h\u00e0ng n\u0103m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1eb1ng nhau nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u1eea, th\u00ec t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n<\/a> l\u00e0m sao c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1eb1ng nhau h\u00e0ng n\u0103m. GDP, Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00e0m sao c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1eb1ng nhau h\u00e0ng n\u0103m. L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1eb1ng nhau h\u00e0ng n\u0103m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.V\u00ec th\u1ebf ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta m\u1edbi d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ebfn con s\u1ed1 B\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n k\u00e9p\/t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh n\u00f3i tr\u00ean.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n

Th\u00e2n \u00e1i
\nCh\u00fa Ba T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u2013 L\u00e2m Minh Ch\u00e1nh<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n k\u00e9p (CAGR), T\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh (Geometric Mean) l\u00e0 c\u00e1c kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng trong kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 c\u1ea3 trong \u0111\u1eddi th\u01b0\u1eddng. (H\u00ecnh minh h\u1ecda m\u00e0u v\u00e0ng b\u00ean ph\u1ea3i). Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed ta c\u00f3 1 doanh nghi\u1ec7p, l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn n\u0103m 2015 l\u00e0…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3761,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_kad_blocks_custom_css":"","_kad_blocks_head_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_body_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_footer_custom_js":"","_kad_post_transparent":"default","_kad_post_title":"default","_kad_post_layout":"default","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"default","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"default","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[95,9,93,94],"class_list":["post-3754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kien-thuc-dau-tu","tag-chu-ba-tai-chinh","tag-lam-minh-chanh","tag-toc-do-tang-truong-binh-quan-kep-carg","tag-ty-suat-loi-nhuan-binh-quan-tai-chinh-geometric-mean"],"featured_image_src_large":["https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/308735957_5504059589681487_8611949591011477349_n.jpg?fit=1024%2C536&ssl=1",1024,536,true],"author_info":{"display_name":"Hi\u1ec1n Nguy\u1ec5n","author_link":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/author\/hn\/"},"comment_info":1,"category_info":[{"term_id":1,"name":"Ki\u1ebfn th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0","slug":"kien-thuc-dau-tu","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":1,"taxonomy":"category","description":"

Chuy\u00ean trang g\u1ed3m nh\u1eefng b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft v\u1ec1 ki\u1ebfn th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng & nh\u1eadn di\u1ec7n r\u1ee7i ro trong \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a chuy\u00ean gia T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 L\u00e2m Minh Ch\u00e1nh<\/p>","parent":0,"count":21,"filter":"raw","cat_ID":1,"category_count":21,"category_description":"

Chuy\u00ean trang g\u1ed3m nh\u1eefng b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft v\u1ec1 ki\u1ebfn th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng & nh\u1eadn di\u1ec7n r\u1ee7i ro trong \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a chuy\u00ean gia T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 L\u00e2m Minh Ch\u00e1nh<\/p>","cat_name":"Ki\u1ebfn th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0","category_nicename":"kien-thuc-dau-tu","category_parent":0}],"tag_info":[{"term_id":95,"name":"ch\u00fa Ba t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh","slug":"chu-ba-tai-chinh","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":95,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":2,"filter":"raw"},{"term_id":9,"name":"Lam Minh Chanh","slug":"lam-minh-chanh","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":9,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":11,"filter":"raw"},{"term_id":93,"name":"T\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n k\u00e9p (CARG)","slug":"toc-do-tang-truong-binh-quan-kep-carg","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":93,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":1,"filter":"raw"},{"term_id":94,"name":"T\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh (Geometric Mean)","slug":"ty-suat-loi-nhuan-binh-quan-tai-chinh-geometric-mean","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":94,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":1,"filter":"raw"}],"taxonomy_info":{"category":[{"value":1,"label":"Ki\u1ebfn th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0"}],"post_tag":[{"value":95,"label":"ch\u00fa Ba t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh"},{"value":9,"label":"Lam Minh Chanh"},{"value":93,"label":"T\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n k\u00e9p (CARG)"},{"value":94,"label":"T\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh (Geometric Mean)"}]},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/308735957_5504059589681487_8611949591011477349_n.jpg?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3754","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3754"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3754\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3771,"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3754\/revisions\/3771"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3761"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3754"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3754"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bizuni.vn\/dau-tu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3754"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}